Despite record institutional interest and the friendly policy of the new US administration, Bitcoin is showing its worst dynamics in history.
Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has shown the worst dynamics in the entire history of price observations. If the trend continues until the end of February, the main cryptocurrency will end the first two months of the year with a negative result for the first time.
According to Coinglass, from 2013 to 2025 inclusive, there were six January periods that ended with a price decline. But each such January was followed by February, which ended with an increase in prices.
February has been a statistically positive month for the price of Bitcoin over the years. Until 2026, there were only three periods when the price recorded a decline at the end of the month. In 2014, it fell by 31%, in 2020 by almost 9%, and in 2025, losses exceeded 17%.
By February 20, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) had fallen by almost 15% since the beginning of the month, below the $68,000 mark. This is a continuation of the January trend, when the price fell by 10%. Over a broader period, the decline during these periods reflects the continuation of the 2025 trend, when the price lost more than 6% by the end of the year, even though Bitcoin reached a historic high of $126,200 in October.
After reaching its peak in early October, the trend changed dramatically — on October 10, 2025, there was a record collapse in cryptocurrency prices, with traders losing at least $19 billion in less than a day. It was after this stress in October, experts believe, that institutional strategies ceased to act as a volatility-reducing factor for Bitcoin. This, in turn, led to capital outflows and additional pressure on the market.
As a result, the market found itself in a situation where retail investors were in a more disadvantageous position than during other downturns, Bloomberg writes, citing experts surveyed.
"Investor interest has declined significantly from December to January, indicating a clear cooling phase in most segments. The most noticeable changes are in the retail segment," Bloomberg quotes the results of a survey of fund managers by Crypto Insight Group.
An additional historical discrepancy can be noted: the previous year, 2025, was the year after the US presidential election, and historically, the years after the election have always shown better results for Bitcoin than any other.
This makes the dynamics even more noticeable compared to previous periods, as evidenced by data from the Checkonchain service. They also show that the first 50 days of the year have been the worst in history for the price of the main cryptocurrency.
In a typical downturn year, the average value of the index calculated by Checkonchain is 0.84 after 50 days. But Bitcoin's current indicators are at 0.77, which highlights the statistical scale of the decline.
One year after the US elections
It is surprising that the price of Bitcoin is showing negative dynamics against the backdrop of historically high interest from institutional investors, as well as the US President Donald Trump's administration, which is loyal to cryptocurrency.
For example, for the whole of 2025, the net inflow of capital from Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) exceeded $21 billion, with total assets on the balance sheet of all funds exceeding $84 billion, according to Sosovalue on February 20. And the total amount of funds on the balance sheets of companies traded on exchanges and accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve reached $77 billion, with the largest company in the sector where Bitcoin is used as a corporate reserve, Strategy, accumulated more than 225,000 BTC last year (about $15 billion at a price of $68,000).
With the arrival of US President Donald Trump's administration in early 2025, the market received a new impetus for acceptance by regulators. In one of his first executive orders, Trump identified the development of dollar-pegged stablecoins as a priority and ordered the creation of a US government reserve consisting of confiscated cryptocurrencies.
At the beginning of the year, the Trump administration took a pro-cryptocurrency stance and disbanded the Justice Department's special unit for cryptocurrency cases. And the main stock exchange regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, began to drop lawsuits against the industry, including cases against Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and other major market players.
In July, the GENIUS Act, a law regulating stablecoins, was passed, becoming the first law passed in 2025 concerning the cryptocurrency market. In August, the White House published a 166-page report with recommendations for regulation, suggesting that the Trump administration intends to usher in a “golden age of cryptocurrencies.”
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